So what is the deal with this? Some of us were all geared up for the bird flu to erupt into a pandemic of epic proportions.  A pandemic simply means that a certain illness spreads throughout the world.  Not everyone gets the illness just a certain percentage get it (20% range).  If this flu (virus) is mild then everyone or many people just get sick with a bad cold–no big deal.  The only concern as I see it is if this flu has a high mortality rate.  The initial numbers from Mexico are concerning-60-80 dead, effecting the 25-45 age group, and total infected 1000.  This would mean a mortality rate of 6-8%.  Now that is alarming and high enough for all of us to be concerned.  However, this is certainly not the real number(s).  There are likely 1000’s or at least 2000 people who have probably gotten the flu and have had little or no symptoms which probably makes the mortality rate more like 3-4% (still high).  The only other problem is if the number dead is actually higher than 60-80.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem like we can get a clear picture of the extent and accuracy of these reports from Mexico.

The cases that we have seen in the U.S. seem to be mild (again the actual case numbers are probably much higher but many are getting the flu or exposed to the flu but not getting any symptoms).  So has this flu already mutated to a milder form? Hopefully and possibly.  Viruses like this tend to mutate to a high infection rate and low mortality rate so that they can stay around.  If the mortality rate is too high, the virus itself dies off (aka ebola), and if the infectivity rate is too low, this will eliminate the virus as well.

The CDC is saying that prior flu vaccines will not give us any immunity, but I would guess that they might provide a little.  Certain antiviral medications (tamiflu) are reported to be effective in shortening the duration of illness, but this could change as the virus mutates.

The bad news:

• mortality in Mexico cases appears to be 6-8% (BUT again that is probably less & the virus may have mutated to a less lethal form)
• it is spreading (although I would have thought that it would have spread more rapidly by now…again all viruses are different and maybe this one is less contagious than others or it just has not had time to mutate enough to change into a very contagious form)
• If it is like prior flu epidemics/pandemics it will have 2-3 waves but hopefully by then a vaccine will help reduce impact
• In Mexico it is killing 25-45 year olds–bad news for most of us–BUT remember: 1. these reports are probably not accurate and mortality rate is probably a lot less 2. cases outside of U.S. are without deaths so far.

sites of interest:

google map-this is several maps created to follow the outbreaks

CDC

WHO

fluwikie