Mexico: 86 confirmed deaths (only 20 of which have been confirmed to have the swine flu); 1400 confirmed cases
These numbers are concerning. I will make an educated guess that most of the 86 deaths are from the flu but there are 1,000’s of unconfirmed cases to go with the 1400 confirmed cases. For example, in New York approximately 100 kids came down with flu symptoms, but the health department only tested 8–all of which were positive for the swine flu. This means that there are a lot of people with this flu that are unconfirmed cases. I am hopeful that when the dust/stats settle, we will find that the Mexico numbers are more likely 80 dead out of 8000 (I hope or just wishful thinking)–which is a 1% mortality rate rather than the 6-8% mortality currently being reported there.
Now why are we not seeing any mortalities (yet)? Is it just too few cases? Or has the flu changed? Or is there some kind of herd immunity from exposure to prior flu vaccines etc.?
Any thoughts???
It’s always hard in these situations to get an accurate total number. How many people may have had mild symptoms that go unreported? Because of this lacking data, it is hard to assess accurately how serious this outbreak really is.
But lets look at what’s working in our favor. The illness has been identified as influenza (not SARS). We have treatments available and the potential for (and extensive experience in) developing a flu vaccine that includes this strain if necessary. This has occurred”off season”. This is not typically a time of year when this illness may have been masked among the large numbers of standard flu strains.
I am glad that the government is making a strong showing here. But I am not all that worried. We are in a solid position to confront this illness. Besides, who can add a day to their lives by worrying? Matthew 6:25-34
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